ФАУ заявило, что у парка реактивных самолетов США есть прогнозы 2.8 процентов годового роста и ожидается, что вырастет еще больше. Читайте больше ниже о ежегодном росте флота Bizjet.
Несмотря на спад рынка в 2015, the АВС maintained that the “long-term outlook, движимый турбинной авиацией, remains favorable” and predicted the general aviation fleet would reach 210,695 aircraft by 2036. This was a more modest prediction than last year’s forecast of a sustained 0.4 percent annual increase that would result in a fleet of 214,260 по 2035.
The АВС continues to believe business jets will lead the growth over the forecast period. Но, its predictions of 2.5 percent annual growth for business jets also is less bullish than last year’s predictions of 2.8 percent annual growth. The АВС also increased expectations for declines in the fixed-wing piston market, estimating that fleet will shrink by 17,500 aircraft over the forecast period, marking an average rate of decline of 0.6 процентов.
В то же время, the АВС is bullish about the light-sport aircraft category, predicting 4.5 percent annual growth. This would add 3,900 aircraft to the fleet by 2036, nearly tripling the size of the 2014 флот.
The АВС forecast general aviation hours overall to increase 1.2 percent per year, driven by a 2.6 percent annual increase in turbine aircraft hours. Business jet hours in particular are anticipated to jump 3.1 percent annually over the forecast period. Однако, this is offset by piston hours, which are forecast to slide annually by 0.6 процентов.
As for the pilot population, the АВС forecast a mixed bag with the number of air transport pilots anticipated to increase by 13,600 over the forecast period, but the number of private and commercial pilots is expected to drop by an annual rate of 0.6 процентов. В целом, the active pilot population had reached 590,039 at the end of 2015.
The АВС bases its forecast on numerous factors, including estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization rates from its General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey, along with assumptions of retirement rates, General Aviation Manufacturers Association data and Transportation Research Board discussions.
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